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Overview

This section outlines the required inputs and step-by-step procedures for performing the following “What-If” scenarios:

  • Simulating a Unit Outage
  • Increasing System Demand
  • Adding Line Constraints
  • Scaling VRE Generation Capacity
note

The scope of potential 'what-if' simulations is extensive and is not restricted to the primary examples provided above.

Use and Purpose​

Evaluating "what-if" scenarios is essential for gaining a deeper understanding of market dynamics. By monitoring how a system adjusts to fluctuating variables, analysts can more accurately project price volatility and market trends.

Prerequisites​

Before running a What-If Scenario, ensure you have the following input files prepared:

  • Demand File: A forecasted or historical regional demand profile.
  • Must-Run Generation File: Forecasted or historical capacity factor data for must-dispatch plants.
  • Bid Files: The set of bid profiles to be utilized (Historical, Custom, Typical, or Dynamic).
  • Event File: Defines the specific constraints or variations applied to the base scenario, such as demand scaling, added generation, or transmission line limits.

Read more about Creating Events here.

Tutorial Video (to add)​

1

Command Module Initialization​

Navigate to the Command Module, drag the Week Simulation template into the Command Sequence panel and click Edit.

2

Configure Base Settings​

Define the parameters for your simulation:

  • Scenario Settings: Set the Scenario ID, Start Date, Number of Days, and Reporting Type.
  • Simulation Parameters: In the Objects sections, input ALL for Storage, Portfolio, and Group Objects, then click Add.
3

Input​

After adding the template, include the Region Demand, and Must Run Generation files from the previous historical load. These files are generated automatically and follow these naming conventions:

  • Region Demand: DemandHR_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv
  • VRE Generation: MRHCFac_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv
note

Use the hourly data (DemandHR_xxxx.csv and MRHCFac_xxxx.csv) if the time interval needed is hourly instead of 5-minute.

4

Set Bids & Outages​

Go to the Bids tab and configure the following:

  • Method: Set to Historical Bid Loading.
  • Options: Check Retain Loaded Bids.
  • Outage Extraction: Set Extract outages longer than (hours) to 1 (equivalent to -ab 1).

Lastly, click "Done Editing"

Note

If multiple scenarios are present, the top-most scenario in the list will be executed first. When new scenarios are added to Apollo, you must click the Refresh button to ensure proper initialization.

Exercise​

Give it a try and do this exercise:

Step 1 of 3

Run and Initialize

Run DefInit.bat with correct database
Run a Historical Load