Backcasting and Calibration
This section discusses how backcasting is performed, including the inputs, outputs, and the steps involved.
Use and Purpose
Backcasting involves modeling historical load data to improve the accuracy of future forecasts. Before doing this, a historical load must first be completed.
Prerequisites
- Historical Demand
- Historical Generation
- Historical Bids
- Historical Events
Step-by-Step Guide
- Phase 1: File Integration
- Phase 2: Commandline Setup
1
Inputs
Prepare to include the Event File, Region Demand, and Must Run Generation files from the previous historical load. These files are generated automatically and follow these naming conventions:
- Event File:
Ev_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv - Region Demand:
Demand_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv - VRE Generation:
MRGCFac_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv
note
Use the hourly data (DemandHR_xxxx.csv and MRHCFac_xxxx.csv) if the time interval needed is hourly instead of 5-minute.
Exercise
Give it a try and do this exercise:
Step 1 of 3
Run and Initialize
Run DefInit.bat with correct database
Run a <Link to='/docs/ipool/Historical Load' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer'>historical load</Link>