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Overview

This section outlines the required inputs and step-by-step procedure for running a backcast and calibrating the Reserve Calibration Factor in Suite.

  • Required Inputs
  • Step-by-step procedure
  • Exercise

Backcasting and Calibration​

Backcasting involves modeling historical load data to improve the accuracy of future forecasts. This section outlines the components required to successfully run a backcast and its calibration.

warning

Before proceeding, ensure that the historical load has been completed. The only remaining Historical Database Errors should be Out-of-Merit No Bid, Out-of-Merit Outage, and/or Line Outage.

Prerequisites​

  • Historical Demand — Dem_XXX.csv — automatically generated when the historical load is run. Saved in the Demands folder directory. The filename corresponds to the scenario name used in the historical load.
  • Historical Generation — Gen_XXX.csv — also generated by the Historical Load. Saved in the Generations folder directory.
  • Historical Bids — OM_XXX.bid — the automatically generated bids for out-of-merit units with missing bids. For simulations using a historical time frame, auto-bid loading can be used with the parameters -abf ALL and -ab 1.
  • Historical Events — Ev_XXX.csv — the list of automatically captured events (particularly outages) from the Historical Load. Generated in the Events folder of the working directory.
note

Backcast and calibration can also be performed at a 1-hour interval, with minor changes to the demand and generation files. The required files should have filenames in the format DemHR_XXX.csv and GenHr_XXX.csv.

Step-by-Step Guide​

1

Create a Backcast Using the Command Module​

  1. Open Apollo, then go to Command Module and click + Add command.
  2. Select an appropriate backcast template, then fill in the required details based on the historical load you want to model.
  3. By default, the captured events and the generated bids for out-of-merit no-bid units are included. These can be excluded by clicking or deselecting the corresponding options.
  4. After completing the setup, click Add to sequence. This setup creates a backcast using a spin parameter of 0.
Drive Asset
Note

If multiple scenarios are present, the top-most scenario in the sequence list will be executed first. When new scenarios are added to Apollo, click the Restart button to ensure proper initialization before running.

Exercise​

Give it a try and do this exercise:

Step 1 of 3

Verify Prerequisites

Confirm historical load has been completed
Check that only Out-of-Merit No Bid, Out-of-Merit Outage, or Line Outage errors remain
Locate Dem_XXX.csv, Gen_XXX.csv, OM_XXX.bid, and Ev_XXX.csv in the working directory